South Gloucestershire Local Plan: Policies, Sites and Places Plan - Regulation 18 Consultation (2015)

South Gloucestershire Local Plan: Policies, Sites and Places Plan - Regulation 18 Consultation (2015)

Appendix 1: Authority's Monitoring Report (Early Extract 20/11/2015) - Five Year Land Supply Assessment

Covering the period 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2015

Extract from 2015 AMR

Net additional dwellings in future years; and

Managed Housing Delivery

 Assessment of Five Year Supply against Adopted South Gloucestershire Core Strategy CS15

A

Core Strategy minimum housing requirement 2006-2027

28,355

B

Completions 2006 to 2013

5,810

C

Remaining housing requirement 2013 to 2027 (A minus B)

22,545

D

Annualised housing requirement for the remaining years of the Core Strategy following adoption (C/14)

1,610

E

Five Year Requirement 2015 to 2020 (D x 5)

8,050

F

Completions 2013 to 2015

2,319

G

Under delivery since the adoption of the Core Strategy (D x 2 - F)

901

H

Under delivery annualised over the remaining plan period (G/12)

75

I

Annualised under delivery since the adoption of the Core Strategy over the next five years (H x 5)

375

J

Five Year Requirement 2015 to 2020 plus under delivery (E plus I)

8,425

K

Five Year Requirement including 20% "Buffer" (J x 20%)

10,110

L

Annualised provision required (K/5 years)

2,022

M

Total identified deliverable supply 2015 to 2020

8,659

 

Five Year supply surplus or deficit (M minus K)

-1,451

Five Year supply (M/K x100)

86%

Five Year supply (M/L)

4.28

Table 2.3 Source: Strategic Planning Policy and Specialist Advice (South Gloucestershire Council)

 

Commentary

Para. 47 of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requires authorities to identify and update annually a supply of deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional buffer of either 5% or 20% to ensure choice and competition in the market for land.  For the purposes of complying with paragraph 47 of the NPPF South Gloucestershire is a 20% authority.

Table 2.3 sets out the land supply calculations based on Policy CS15 of the Core Strategy.

The council has made every effort to ensure that at the time of preparing the AMR its forecasts of housing land supply are robust and incorporate up to date information.  This includes: recent (September 2015) survey data on build progress of large housing sites; feedback / contact between the Council's Major Sites Team and landowners / developers on the likely timescales for the development of their sites; and independent market assessment of the completion assumptions. 

Housing supply has been assessed based on the following:

  • Residential development that is currently under construction;
  • Unimplemented planning permissions;
  • Sites where resolution to grant planning permission subject to S106 agreement;
  • Sites allocated for development within the adopted South Gloucestershire Local Plan;
  • Sites emerging through the Core Strategy and Policies Sites and Places DPD where there is a reasonable prospect of completion in the next five years; and
  • Sites currently under pre application discussions where there is an expectation of the grant of planning permission within the near future.

The monitoring of the future housing supply is detailed in the "Housing Trajectory" (Appendix A of the AMR). The assessment reveals that the compounding effect of the development industry's under delivery against the annual Core Strategy requirement, has created a situation whereby the annual requirement is in excess of any previous years' completion rate since 1989. This is despite some 10,500 homes being available with planning permission.

The council's assessment, supported by independent appraisal, is that the ability of the development sector to construct and complete sufficient new homes to address this shortfall within the next 5 years (referred to as the "Sedgefield approach"), in the context of ambitious annual housing targets set out in the adopted Core Strategy, is not feasible or practical. The council recognises the desire, set out in the National Planning Practice Guidance, to address under delivery as soon as possible. However, the particular circumstances that exist in South Gloucestershire mean that it would be wholly inappropriate to calculate the housing supply requirement in this way as this would inflate the annual requirement to in excess of 2,100 units and result in a housing target that cannot be achieved. In short the council does not consider that it is possible to deliver this amount of housing over this period. Indeed, the development industry has never delivered in any single year more the 2,055 units since 1989 when records began (South Gloucestershire Council: Residential Land Survey, April 2015). Therefore, in a change from last year's AMR, the housing trajectory is set on the basis of addressing under delivery over the remaining plan period to 2027 (referred to as the "Liverpool approach") as this provides a more realistic target.

The council is proactively using its Policies, Sites and Places Plan to consider the allocation of additional sites that are capable of addresses the identified shortfall in provision over the next 5 years. Further details can be found here: www.southglos.gov.uk/policiessitesandplaces